Balance Model of COVID-19 Epidemic Based on Percentage Growth Rate

The paper examines the possibility of using an alternative approach to predicting statistical indicators a new COVID-19 virus type epidemic. A systematic review models for epidemics infections in foreign and Russian literature is presented. accuracy SIR model spring 2020 wave epidemic forecast Russia analyzed. As modeling spread model, CIR discrete stochastic proposed based on balance at current past time points. describes dynamics total number cases (C), recoveries deaths (R), active (I). system parameters are percentage increase C(t) value characteristic dynamic epidemiological process, first introduced this paper. principle process assumes that any has property similarity between present. To calculate values characteristic, integer linear programming problem used. In general, not constant. An which constant called non-stationary. construct mid-term forecasts intervals stationarity special algorithm been developed. question non-stationarity being examined. Examples application making considered May-June given.